The Future of Bitcoin

Chiming Wang
October 11, 2025



Today (Oct. 11, 2025), $19 billion was liquidated from the crypto market. This was the largest liquidation event in crypto history.

In the last 24 hours:

  • Ethereum is down 12.2% (to $3.8k)
  • BNB is down 11.1% (to $1,126)
  • Solana is down 17.3% (to @$182.61)
  • Bitcoin dominance went from 59.3% to 63.46%.
  • In the last 4 days, CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index went from 62 (Greed) to 35 (Fear).

Bitcoin also dropped but recovered and now stays at $112,000 per coin with a market cap of 2.2 trillion dollars, showing its unwavering resilience in the face of macro fears.

Through these events, I continue to hold (and accumulate) Bitcoin.


Bitcoin is scarce. Extremely scarce.

Theoretically, there is a hard 21 million cap on the supply of Bitcoins. In reality, there can only be 19 million Bitcoins ever, because 2-3 million are likely lost.

19 million is an absurdly small number. Let's put it into perspective:

  • There are 58 million millionaires in the world.
    • If you have one whole bitcoin, you are rarer than a millionaire.
    • If all the millionaires in the world tried getting their hands on bitcoins, they will only have 0.3275 Bitcoins each, on average.
  • There are 8 billion people in the world. If all people in the world tried getting their hands on bitcoins, they will only have 0.002375 Bitcoins each, on average.

But let's assume a 80:20 Pareto Distribution, where 20% of top holders own 80% of the supply of Bitcoin (19 million coins), and let's also assume Bitcoin's global adoption is 100%: full saturation.

The top 20% of holders, with 80% of the supply distributed amongst themselves, will have, on average, 0.0105 bitcoins. The bottom 80% of holders, with 20% of the supply distributed amongst themselves, will have, on average, 0.000656 bitcoins.

The top 20% of the top 20% of holders (top 4% of holders), with 80% of 80% of the total supply of coins (64% of total supply), will only have on average 0.038 bitcoins per person. This means if you have around 0.038 Bitcoins right now, you are guaranteed to be in the top 4% of Bitcoin holders ever.

Bitcoins are becoming harder and harder to obtain.

Bitcoins are not only scarce; over time, they are progressively harder to acquire. When compared in USD prices (as is the standard), 1 bitcoin is worth over $110,000 (October 2025), more than twice the median annual salary in the US (a country with among the highest wages globally).

Every time you acquire more Bitcoin, you are pricing someone out of owning those Bitcoins and making it harder for anyone else to accumulate more Bitcoin. Whenever large buyers like Michael Saylor or BlackRock acquires billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin, they permanently remove that supply from circulation. The supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, so each purchase makes it more difficult for others to accumulate large amounts.

Bitcoins will also become harder and harder to mine. The block subsidy halves every ~4 years and the mining difficulty automatically adjusts every ~2 weeks, making new coins scarcer and harder to mine over time.

Because Bitcoin's mining difficulty scales up over time, the last full Bitcoin will take 35 years to mine (even with all the miners in the world) with an ever-increasing amount of compute and energy put into mining it. This means one single Bitcoin will be worth 35 years of continuous global computation and energy securing the Bitcoin network, a level of scarcity no physical commodity can match.



Macroeconomic and geopolitical trends indicate a shift towards hard money.

For the past few decades, the US hegemony was the undisputed central power in the world.

However, the current trend is that the world power is becoming increasingly more and more multipolar. The US hegemony is perceived to be weaker, contested by rising global powers in East and South Asia (China, India).

Countries (eg.: China) are racing to accumulate more gold, and there is a real potential for gold-backed currencies (BRICS, etc.) to replace, or be used alongside, the US Dollar in the global economy.


Bitcoin is the gold replacement.

Bitcoin offers a viable alternative to gold or gold-backed currencies.

Bitcoin, unlike gold, is easy to secure and transport. Transporting and storing gold costs millions of dollars in security fees and is an operational nightmare. Bitcoin is easier to transact with; transactions, even international, take 10-30 minutes. On the other hand, it is very hard to ship gold across countries or continents.

Bitcoin's supply is extremely stable, with no hidden issuances or unexpected supply shocks. It has a fully transparent and predictable emission schedule. Every block (approx. 10 minutes), 3.125 Bitcoins is rewarded to miners; every 210,000 blocks (approx. 4 years) this block reward is halved, making each Bitcoin harder and harder to mine. This is set by math and code within the actual Bitcoin protocol and can't be changed without the consensus of the network.

In contrast, gold's supply is inherently uncertain. Large new discoveries, by companies or governments, can materialize suddenly and at scale, drastically affecting gold's supply and value. The most recent example of this was in November 2024, when China announce the discovery of a "supergiant" gold deposit (1000+ tons of gold) worth over $80 billion. Because the timing, size, or location of new gold finds is unpredictable, large discoveries can and will shock global markets.

One of the most dramatic examples was during Spain's colonial extraction of gold and silver from the Americas in the 16th and 17th centuries. Massive inflows of precious metals into Europe caused price inflation, currency devaluation, and major shifts in global trade.

This can and will happen again in the future.

The Europe-America relationship of the early modern period has many parallels to the Earth-space relationship. In the future, as space mining becomes feasible, large deposits of precious metals including gold will be extracted from asteroids or other planets, shipped back to Earth, and injected into the global economy. Extraction of gold from outer space would dwarf global production and flood markets, destroying its value.

In contrast, Bitcoin's supply is algorithmically fixed and transparent, immune to surprise discoveries (which cannot happen). Its fixed supply of 21 million coins cannot be expanded by discovery, conquest, or technological breakthrough. It is the only asset immune to supply shocks and inflation.

Bitcoin is digital energy.

"Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy." - Elon Musk

Trillions of dollars have been generated in the realm of digital transformation: first digital computers, then digital intercontinental communication (Internet), digital mail (email), digital maps, digital payments, and more.

But then there's energy. The world is energy. The biggest benchmark for the progression of civilization is the ability to generate and consume energy. Everything is downstream from energy.

Trillions of dollars have yet to be generated in the realm of digital energy. The majority of people don't know what digital energy even is.

Proof-of-work makes block production proportional to energy expenditure and pegs ledger security to real-world energy. This means Bitcoin's immutability is backed by energy: rewriting finalized blockchain history would require re-doing that energy work faster than the entire network, which is economically prohibitive and basically impossible. A Bitcoin is a representation of the energy it took to mine and confirm a block. The Bitcoin network allows users to send "energy," converted into bitcoins (a digital representation of energy) to each other over a digital network spanning all populated areas of the world.

People claim Bitcoin is a "waste of energy," but they are completely wrong. Miners are location-agnostic, interruptible loads. They monetize extra power and curtail when grids tighten. Over time, Bitcoin becomes a buyer of last resort for wasted energy. This is dual-use: it improves grid economics while also securing money.



October 11th, 2025 will be remembered as one of Bitcoin's greatest stress tests. $19 billion was liquidated, but Bitcoin recovered to $112,000.

The macro environment continues to shift toward hard assets as the world becomes increasingly more multipolar and fiat currency systems face skepticism. Gold is the traditional hedge, but suffers from fundamental problems that are solved by Bitcoin.

In fiat systems, money creation requires no monetary input and gold's supply is fundamentally uncertain.

Bitcoin's supply is algorithmically fixed and transparent, and its proof of work model allows it to be the most immutable currency ever and the first form of digital energy.

No other asset combines extreme scarcity, absolute supply certainty, energy-backed security and immutability, truly multinational and even multiplanetary transportability, and immunity to supply shocks.